Monday, September 7, 2026

The Drop, Week 1: On Jumping to Conclusions


I have always said that the Week 2 games are infinitely harder to pick than the Week 1 games. There's a simple reason for this: In Week 1, you know you don't really know anything yet. In Week 2, you have some evidence, but it's not nearly enough to be very useful. In that spirit, therefore, here are the things I am not saying after a single game:

  • Nebraska, if Ohio could hang with you for three quarters in your crib, what is Ohio State going to do when it comes to town? Pity the fools who only saw the final score of that game and jumped to the conclusion that Nebraska Might Finally Be Back.
  • Iowa does not have a quarterback controversy, it's going to use Jones and Hecklinski equally.
  • Schiano doesn't survive the season at Rutgers.
  • People are talking about karma eventually biting Michigan in the butt for the extra second. If I'm a Michigan fan, I'm not worried about that; I'm far more worried about that fact that it took such a dubious call for what is supposed to be a good football team to beat Western Michigan.
  • Luke Fickell coaches like a mid-2000s NFL coach who knows he's in over his head and just wants to protect his bag.

I'm not saying any of those things because, even though they're all plausible right now, there just isn't enough evidence to say that any of them are objectively true. So I can't commit to these positions. This is why some people have sports talk shows, and I don't.

I do feel comfortable saying that I'm uncomfortable with how quickly the target audience for college football broadcasts has changed from "person who loves the game, or at least one specific team" to "degenerate gambler."

Photo: “Taking the Plunge” by Michael Coghlan, CC BY-SA 2.0

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