The Drop, Week 4: 36 Lines About 18 Teams

• Illinois: The Illini have looked solid against clearly overmatched opponents, and futile against peer schools. Guess which of those two descriptions best fits the remaining schedule.
• Indiana: Remember last season when Iowa gave the Hoosiers the closest thing they got to a scare? Northwestern remembers.
• Iowa: Beating Michigan was a tremendous boost to team confidence. I'm not saying it will happen, but ten-win Iowa can't be ruled out.
• Maryland: September Maryland used to be a thing, but isn't any more. The next thing that won't be a thing any more will be "Head Coach Mike Locksley."
• Michigan: I don't believe in karma. Michigan lost to Iowa fair and square.
• Michigan State: The rebuild is in progress. It won't be completed this season, alas.
• Minnesota: Beating Washington on the road is a good sign. Losing to Mississippi State at home isn't, though.
• Nebraska: Still hasn't played anybody. I said what I said.
• Northwestern: This team scares me. It's going to beat somebody it shouldn't.
• Ohio State: A very good team that should win the conference. Emphasis on "should."
• Oregon: The Ducks have recovered nicely from that embarrassing loss to Oklahoma State. They have to be wondering if Dan Lanning is still the guy, though.
• Penn State: Matt Campbell couldn't win the Big XII with Iowa State's players. How is he going to win the Big Ten with them?
• Purdue: Still plays football. Bless their hearts.
• Rutgers: See Purdue. Or Maryland?
• UCLA: Has looked really good so far. Still don't think they've been tested all that much.
• USC: It was because of Pete Carroll. Compare notes with Nebraska fans.
• Washington: I don't think the Huskies should scare anyone. They're still dangerous, though.
• Wisconsin: Great win over Iowa State last weekend! Luke Fickell is just keeping the seat warm for Jake Dickert.

The Sweep, Week 4: *bleep* Gets Real

The nonconference season is over for us, and now we move on to the opening week of conference play. That's great news for those of us who don't like watching a good team beat up on a bunch of future Texas Roadhouse managers. But, alas, not all conference games are good either. There are two games on our schedule that should be pretty good, and of course, they overlap in time.

So let's just take a look.

Illinois at No. 7 Ohio State (11 am, FOX): Illinois looked pretty good roughing up a ranked FCS team last week, but that was at least partially motivated by its having lost on the road to Wake Forest the week before. That's really not a thing that should happen -- no Big Ten team whose name doesn't rhyme with "Burdue" or "Snutgers" should ever lose to the Demon Deacons, at least not in football -- but I don't actually know what it means for the quality of Bret Bielema's team. What I do know is that Ohio State lost to Texas on the road two weeks ago, and if you can't win on the road in [googles] ... Wake Forest? Really? -- what the heck are you going to do in Columbus? Ohio State 37, Illinois 13. 

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (2:30 pm, CBS/Paramount+): I admit I had hopes that both these teams would be ranked when they met, but I figured Iowa would underwhelm enough to stuck in the Others Receiving Votes purgatory. Not in my most lysergic dreams did I imagine, however, that Iowa would be ranked higher than Michigan.

It's Week 4. I have no idea if Iowa is correctly ranked. I am quite sure that Michigan will be the biggest test the Hawks have faced this far -- and that Iowa will be the biggest test Michigan has faced, because Oklahoma has not looked good at all.

Also Michigan lost to WMU, You know it, I know it, and the American people know it. Iowa 24, Michigan 20.

Wisconsin at No. 13 Penn State (4 pm, Peacock): Matt Campbell isn't in Ames any more so I can finally, begrudgingly, admit that yeah, he's a decent coach. I am lowkey looking to this season as a show that there's just something about Ames that holds football coaches back. I think the Nits will put up gaudy numbers here, but I'm not ready to call Soup the next Cignetti, particularly since the first Cignetti is still here and doesn't seem to have lost a step. Of course, even Nebraska thinks Indiana's nonconference schedule was soft. Nits, by a lot. Penn State 44, Wisconsin 17.

Nebraska at Michigan State (4 pm, BTN): The "are the Huskers finally back?" stories are running again, while Pat Fitzgerald and Michigan State are having a round of  "who rescued who?" I commend the voters for taking a wait-and-see attitude towards ranking the Huskers, but a win here would probably get them a ranking in the twenties. And I think they'll win. Nebraska 30, Michigan State 23.

Minnesota at Washington (10 pm, FOX): Nothing good comes from these long road trips -- not in either direction; see last week's USC-Rutgers game that Lincoln Riley almost gacked away -- and nothing ever will. I'm not sure Washington is all that great, but I feel a little more confident that Minnesota is at best a 7-5 team. Washington 40, Minnesota 20.

The Drop, Week 3: Sole Survivor

There were so many deliriously goofy things that happened in college football last weekend, but it's already Wednesday as I write this and I'm quite sure you're sick of all of them. So instead I'm going to take a quick rundown of what has happened amongst the five teams of the Sweepiverse at the close of the season's first quarter.

Four of our five teams have played a game against a Power 4 opponent, so nuts to you, Nebraska.

Of those four teams, here's how it has gone for them against those opponents:

• Illinois lost on the road to Wake Forest. I somehow feel like this is not a good omen for its 2026 season. As chance would have it, I was in Champaign last weekend (for a meeting, not for the game) and talked to a couple Illinois fans who were convinced that they would beat SIU but that would be the last win of the Illini's season. I think that might a bit too much doom but I don't fault Illini fans for defaulting to a mindset of chronic impending disaster.
• Minnesota lost at home to Mississippi State. By the time the season ends that may not prove to be a bad loss, but we are here and it is now and it seems like it is one. If you need proof that These Times We Live In are bad, there is already speculation on where Bulldog QB Kamario Taylor will be playing next season, with Mississippi State not being seen as particularly likely.
• Wisconsin got frogstomped by Notre Dame, but that is what everyone expected to happen, so.
• Iowa beat Iowa State at home. There has been considerable angsting over the narrow 16-13 victory, particularly in the light of ISU being a near-consensus presason favorite to finish last in the Big XII. I think Kansas might have something to say about that, and I'm not yet ready to anoint Oklahoma State as being in the clear, because beating 2026 Oregon might turn out not to be that big of a deal.

In other words, twenty-five percent of the way through the season, Iowa is the only one of our five teams with a victory over a Power 4 opponent.

The Sweep, Week 2: The Regurgitated Frosting Theory

One of my laws of college football is this: Competition creates competitors. Teams that feast on cupcakes in early September will spend the rest of the season puking up frosting. I considered this rule ironclad and inviolable until the rise of Indiana, which treats challenging non-conference games the way most of us would react to finding a dead rat in our breakfast.

Hayden Fry's notorious theory about scheduling those non-conference games was "a tune-up, a toss-up, and Iowa State." For most of Hayden's tenure Iowa State was a second tune-up, but I digress. It's fair to say I stole my idea from him. A team that arrives at a challenging conference schedule without having been seriously tested at least once is significantly less likely to make it through the season unscathed.

Indiana has now provided at least one counter-example to my theory, but it's too soon to tell whether that is actual data or just an anecdote. For the teams in my purview, since they're unlikely to make the playoff, the cost of a non-conference loss is mostly pride and maybe a slide down the rankings, if they're even in them.

Why do I bring this up? No idea, but it's certainly not because of Nebraska's kitten-belly-soft non-conference schedule this season. Bill Snyder scheduled tougher opponents at K-State.

Anyway, the games. This looks like a good week to get any of that pesky yard work done because these games should be darn near unwatchable.

Akron at Minnesota (11 am, BTN): It's tempting to crack wise about Minnesota playing one of the many interchangeable Ohio MAC schools, but since the Gophers got pantsed by Mississippi State last weekend I'll let it slide. Akron got a lot of free publicity last week by allowing a fan to call the offensive plays on its opening drive, only for that drive to stall out when one of the Zips fumbled, which is the most Akron thing ever. The Zips should maybe just let AI call all the plays this week; it wouldn't affect the result. Minny 44, Akron 7.

Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin (11:30 am, Peacock): Here is another theoretically unforgiveable game that can be looked past after the goshawful season the Badgers had last year. After all, what is MAC football other than an escort service for Big Ten programs? Wisconsin 38, EMU 17.

Southern Illinois at Illinois (1 pm, Peacock): Speaking of clandestine transactions, here's another one, but at least SIU is pretty good. Not "beat the flagship of its own state" good since they did lose in their opening game to a school that just moved up to Division II, but still, pretty good. Illinois 48, SIU 20.

Northern Iowa at Iowa (3 pm, FS1): Iowa has played NIU and UNI. So why does it refuse to play INU, IUN, NUI, and UIN? What is Kirk Ferentz afraid of? Smash that 'like' button and hit 'subscribe' for more deceptive content! Iowa 33, UNI 10.

North Dakota at Nebraska (6:15 pm, BTN): The joke is potentially on the Huskers here since the [Googles] Fighting Hawks are ranked No. 6 in the FCS this week. I think they're hoping that everyone thinks they're playing North Dakota State, which the Huskers would never do. Of course, they played Ohio University in the season opener, not Ohio State (that game is coming) and for three quarters it was dangerously close to disaster. UND doesn't have the horses to run with Nebraska for four quarters, but it probably does for three. Again. Nebraska 42, UND 23.

Know Your Non-Conference Tomato Can: North Dakota

The University of North Dakota is located in, and pretty much is, the city of Grand Forks. Yeah, there's an air base there, but it's a considerable ways out of town. With an enrollment just over 15,000 students, UND doesn't have the football profile of its long-time rival NDSU, but it's an up and coming university. Its aviation and aerospace programs are noteworthy and, just like the University of Iowa, you can study law and medicine at UND, but you can't study agriculture. And, just like Minnesota, hockey is a bigger deal here than football is. Notable UND alumni include a zillion NHL players, basketball coach Phil Jackson, NFL "Remember That Guy?" hall-of-famer Jim Kleinsasser, and Gen X gadfly Chuck Klosterman.

Cupcake photo: https://www.instagram.com/p/CG-WXGipr26/

UND photo: By MatthewUND - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7590288

The Drop, Week 2: Pull The Handle And Flush

Big Ten teams played eight games against Power 4 opponents this past weekend, and lost six of the eight games.

The sole victories were earned by a Michigan squad that everyone (including me) swore was going to get bit hard by karma when it went up against the Oklahoma Sooners, and by Iowa, the Reuben sandwich of college football. (Nobody respects it, but it's always there and it's always a solid choice.) The Hawkeyes did not lead until the game's final fifteen seconds, but honestly, the only time it matters who's in the lead is when the clock runs out.

As for the rest of the league (the ones that weren't too cowardly to play an opponent with a pulse, Curt. And Matt.), it's too depressing to contemplate. Except for Minnesota getting pantsed in its own crib by Mississippi State, of course. That was hilarious.

This is the sort of week that feeds sports talk for six days with endless discussion about whether the Big Ten is having a down year, with absolutely no one willing to argue that it isn't. Again, it is Week Two. We still don't really know anything.

Michigan can be proud. Iowa can be thankful. The rest of the league either did what it was supposed to, or didn't. Pull the handle and flush the bad week away. There is a lot of football yet to come.

The Sweep, Week 2: Football-Like Protoplasm

There are some great games in the Big Ten this weekend! Unfortunately they all involve the other thirteen teams in the conference! 

Meanwhile, we at least get some slightly more compelling matchups than we got in Week 1. Also Nebraska is playing.

Duke at Illinois (2:30 Central, FS1): I keep forgetting Duke has a football team too. They beat Tulane last week, which I can never remember if that's good or not. Actually, I have that problem with the entire ACC. I'm not even that sure about Real Miami, and they played for the national championship last season. About the only thing I know about ACC football is that the Nebraskafication of Florida State is well under way.

Anyway, Illinois looked pretty good against UAB last week, as it should have. I like that now the Illini can just drop their Dollar General-sized video board on another team if things get out of hand, too. Illinois 27, Duke 20.

Mississippi State at Minnesota (2:30 Central, CBS/Paramount+): As I said in my season preview, I'm impressed that an SEC school scheduled a challenging out-of-conference game (a) at all, and (b) on the road. That said school is Mississippi State is ...

(Okay, there are a couple guys I know who read this who should just skip ahead to the next game, because I like y'all way too much to want you to read what I'm about to write.)

... not surprising, since the Bulldogs are the Purdue of the SEC. 100% chance that PJ Fleck mentions "beating an SEC team" in his annual review, which will be unnecessary since Minny is perfectly happy with him already. Minnesota 24, Mississippi State 14.

Bowling Green at Nebraska (6 pm Central, FS1): The Huskers once again this week bring an Ohio MAC school to Lincoln for target practice. Ohio U proved feisty, no matter what the final score appeared to indicate. 

For its part, Bowling Green lost to something called "Tarleton State" last week. If you lose to a school that sounds like something Yosemite Sam would shout at Bugs Bunny, I can't take you seriously. I can't Nebraska seriously yet either. Nebraska 55, BGSU 10.

Know Your Non-Conference Tomato Can: Bowling Green State University

Locked in a death match with its bitter rival Toledo for the title of Best Public University in Northwestern Ohio, Bowling Green enrolls over 20,000 students. BGSU has a long history and helped pioneer the academic study of pop culture, meaning that it's at least partially responsible for the many highbrow books about The Simpsons. It is also one of only two universities with an airport on campus, in case that matters to you.

In addition to the usual phalanx of state legislators and dudes who might have played in a couple NFL games, BGSU's most famous alumni are Tim Conway and Ric Ocasek. There are probably others, but this column's demographics already skew old enough. 

Western Illinois at Wisconsin (6:15 pm Central, BTN): A lot people don't realize this but Western Illinois has already beaten Northwestern this year.

No, not that one. The one in Iowa. You know, the NAIA school in Orange City.

The Leathernecks have also gotten pounded flat by Illinois State, so don't go thinking this program has turned the corner. That means that WIU needs a road game against an extremely POed Wisconsin team about as much as it needs a soup fork. Wisconsin 48, WIU 12.

Iowa State at Iowa (6:30 pm Central, NBC/Peacock): This game is going to be a severe reality check for one of these two teams and its fans. Both teams flowed to easy wins over clearly outmatched opponents in Week 1. Iowa beat Northern Illinois -- a team that has given it trouble in the past -- 40-0. Lots of praise has been given to the offense, which looked like an actual functional unit that could impose its will. Tony Diaz in particular has gotten lots of love for being awesome, mostly because he is, but Kamari Moulton led all Big Ten rushers last week with 188 yards. And the defense absolutely smothered the Huskies.

All that is for naught if NIU is secretly dreadful, which is a thing we just don't know yet, because Week 1.

Iowa State, for its part, gave Jimmy Rogers a win in his opening game by beating perpetual Ohio Valley Conference also-ran Southeast Missouri State.38-10. By strange coincidence, my oldest daughter happens to work at SEMO.

Just about everyone is down on the Clones this year, since almost the entire team is in State College, Pennsylvania now. So conventional wisdom is that (Iowa + competent offense) / (Iowa State - Matt Campbell - all the good players from last season) = Hawkeye blowout.

I'm not that confident, but I think the Hawkeyes win and avenge Southeast Missouri State, which will please my daughter, assuming she is actually aware that SEMO played Iowa State last week (she isn't). Iowa 34, Iowa State 17.

The Drop, Week 1: On Jumping to Conclusions

I have always said that the Week 2 games are infinitely harder to pick than the Week 1 games. There's a simple reason for this: In Week 1, you know you don't really know anything yet. In Week 2, you have some evidence, but it's not nearly enough to be very useful. In that spirit, therefore, here are the things I am not saying after a single game:

• Nebraska, if Ohio could hang with you for three quarters in your crib, what is Ohio State going to do when it comes to town? Pity the fools who only saw the final score of that game and jumped to the conclusion that Nebraska Might Finally Be Back.
• Iowa does not have a quarterback controversy, it's going to use Jones and Hecklinski equally.
• Schiano doesn't survive the season at Rutgers.
• People are talking about karma eventually biting Michigan in the butt for the extra second. If I'm a Michigan fan, I'm not worried about that; I'm far more worried about that fact that it took such a dubious call for what is supposed to be a good football team to beat Western Michigan.
• Luke Fickell coaches like a mid-2000s NFL coach who knows he's in over his head and just wants to protect his bag.

I'm not saying any of those things because, even though they're all plausible right now, there just isn't enough evidence to say that any of them are objectively true. So I can't commit to these positions. This is why some people have sports talk shows, and I don't.

I do feel comfortable saying that I'm uncomfortable with how quickly the target audience for college football broadcasts has changed from "person who loves the game, or at least one specific team" to "degenerate gambler."

Photo: “Taking the Plunge” by Michael Coghlan, CC BY-SA 2.0