The Sweep, Week 7: Slim Pickin's

In the limited scope that is the Sweepiverse, there are only two games this weekend, and they both have potential to be embarrassments for the teams in our purview. Tradition holds that I should pad this out with three other games so you get your money's worth. However, (a) I have a major event this weekend for which I am responsible so my mind is already elsewhere, and (b) this is free, ya goober. 

Wisconsin at No. 12 UCLA (6:30 pm, NBC/Peacock): This has a bit of potential to be a trap game for UCLA, lying as it does between the emotional victory over Oregon at Autzen Stadium in a game which took Nico Iamaleava out for the season, and ...

[checks UCLA's schedule]

... the Big Ten Championship game against whomever wins the Ohio State-Indiana game earlier in the day.

So there is opportunity here for the Badgers, if they can somehow manage to slap the Bruins into a defensive posture. I have the feeling, however, that Bob Chesney is far too wise of a coach to let his team think of this game as the first in a kitten-soft stretch of six or seven easily winnable games in a row (taking down Minnesota in Minneapolis won't be easy, but it's doable for this team). And, even if he isn't that wise, he's a better coach than Luke Fickell.

Isn't that right, Penn State? UCLA 35, Wisconsin 13.

Nebraska at Oregon (10 pm, FOX): When the chill winds of October begin to stir, they blow the bloom right off the rose.

[He's writing these words on a day when the dewpoint is 78º where he lives. -Ed.]

Did you know that Dylan Raiola played for Nebraska last year? Don't worry, the Fox crew will remind you six or seven times. Per quarter.

This could have been a great game, had Dante Moore not gotten injured and had the Huskers not gacked it away when they had Indiana in a submission hold early in the fourth quarter last week. This preserves Matt Rhule's hard-to-believe record of 2-26 against ranked teams, with both wins coming over a decade ago while he was the coach at Temple. And those two wins were against East Carolina and Navy. Now the Husker faithful, who have had their confidence shaken more times than a state fair lemonade, have to be wondering if 5-0 was just a point they passed through on their way to 7-5. They're almost certainly wrong, however. It was a point they passed through on their way to 8-4. Oregon 31, Nebraska 24.

The Drop, Week 6: Who Would You Rather Be?

 

If you had to pick between being one of these two teams, which one would you pick?

• Team A is a traditional power fallen on hard times. It began it season with a 5-0 run against teams it frankly should have beaten, then hosted a Top Ten team this past Saturday. Team A dominated its visitor through the first three quarters, setting it up nicely to open the gap and send a message. But instead it squandered an eleven-point lead and wound up losing by a field goal in front of a fired-up home crowd.
• Team B is also, technically, a traditional power, only its heyday was so long ago that no one actually remembers it. It lost to an up-and-coming SEC team at home in Week 2, but followed that up with a gritty road win against a team most expected to be pretty good this season, then a victory at home against a conference foe it rarely, rarely beats. Which made this past weekend all the most surprising when it got mashed into goo by a team that not even its own fans take all that seriously.

I don't know why I'm being cryptic here. Team A is Nebraska, Team B is Minnesota, and honestly, you wouldn't want to be either of them right now, given how all that early promise vanished into dust in the span or a few hours (Minnesota) or fifteen minutes of game time (Nebraska).

Then again, you could be an Illinois fan, breathing a sigh of relief that your team won by a single point in overtime on the road in East Lansing, because we all know what a snakepit that place is.

The Sweep, Week 6: In Which The Lines Get Drawn

I want to thank you all for understanding when I didn't publish The Sweep or The Drop last week. A friend of mine died suddenly (but not entirely unexpectedly) last Wednesday. I was at a work conference when I learned he was sick; shortly after I got home, he died. I just didn't have it in me to be witty or profound. I'm not even sure that I do have that in me now.

My friend would not at all mind me reminding you that substance abuse does not make your problems go away, it just gives you more problems on top of the ones you already have.

This is a week in which all four of our teams which are playing are going to get sorted. If the locus of the power in the conference is moving back to the old Big Ten West (maybe?), this is where the cream rises to the top.

Of course, cream isn't the only thing that floats, but I digress.

No. 20 Iowa at Washington (Friday, 8 pm, FOX/FS1): On the road, short week, Kirk Ferentz hasn't ever won on the West Coast except for the 2019 Holiday Bowl, et cetera. I still think that of the four West Coast teams, Washington is the runt of the 2026 litter. Probably gonna be another pending-infarction Hawkeyes game. Iowa 30, Washington 27.

No. 7 Indiana at Nebraska (11 am, FOX): So far Nebraska has been rolling so steadily that Matt Rhule has had time to start an acting career. For his next role he'll be playing Deer In Headlights. Indiana 37, Nebraska 13.

Illinois at Michigan State (2:30 pm, FS1):

Illinois 24, Michigan State 20.

Minnesota at Purdue (7 pm, BTN): I know, what disgusting fluid can PJ Fleck smear or pour all over his face this week? Given that it's Purdue, the only answer is diesel. But, of course, you have to win the game first. A laughable objection, I realize, given that Purdue ... is Purdue, but it seems like the Boilermakers are a bit less Purdubious than they were last year. If Minnesota fans are getting a little cocky (and some of them are), this game should provide the scare that they need to sober themselves up. Minnesota isn't going to lose but it'll be closer than might be expected, because I'm just not sure that Michigan and Washington are actually all that good, though Mississippi State is looking like it wasn't that bad of a loss. Minnesota 31, Purdue 27.

BONUS GAME: No. 19 USC at Penn State (6:30 pm, NBC/Peacock): Why did I pick this game and not Ohio State-Oregon? Because this game is going to be outright hilarious. Both of these teams smell blood in the water, but one of them is going to lose. I'm beginning to think Lincoln Riley couldn't coach a fart out of a bulldog, so I'm taking the home team. Penn State 34, USC 24.

The Drop, Week 4: 36 Lines About 18 Teams

• Illinois: The Illini have looked solid against clearly overmatched opponents, and futile against peer schools. Guess which of those two descriptions best fits the remaining schedule.
• Indiana: Remember last season when Iowa gave the Hoosiers the closest thing they got to a scare? Northwestern remembers.
• Iowa: Beating Michigan was a tremendous boost to team confidence. I'm not saying it will happen, but ten-win Iowa can't be ruled out.
• Maryland: September Maryland used to be a thing, but isn't any more. The next thing that won't be a thing any more will be "Head Coach Mike Locksley."
• Michigan: I don't believe in karma. Michigan lost to Iowa fair and square.
• Michigan State: The rebuild is in progress. It won't be completed this season, alas.
• Minnesota: Beating Washington on the road is a good sign. Losing to Mississippi State at home isn't, though.
• Nebraska: Still hasn't played anybody. I said what I said.
• Northwestern: This team scares me. It's going to beat somebody it shouldn't.
• Ohio State: A very good team that should win the conference. Emphasis on "should."
• Oregon: The Ducks have recovered nicely from that embarrassing loss to Oklahoma State. They have to be wondering if Dan Lanning is still the guy, though.
• Penn State: Matt Campbell couldn't win the Big XII with Iowa State's players. How is he going to win the Big Ten with them?
• Purdue: Still plays football. Bless their hearts.
• Rutgers: See Purdue. Or Maryland?
• UCLA: Has looked really good so far. Still don't think they've been tested all that much.
• USC: It was because of Pete Carroll. Compare notes with Nebraska fans.
• Washington: I don't think the Huskies should scare anyone. They're still dangerous, though.
• Wisconsin: Great win over Iowa State last weekend! Luke Fickell is just keeping the seat warm for Jake Dickert.

The Sweep, Week 4: *bleep* Gets Real

The nonconference season is over for us, and now we move on to the opening week of conference play. That's great news for those of us who don't like watching a good team beat up on a bunch of future Texas Roadhouse managers. But, alas, not all conference games are good either. There are two games on our schedule that should be pretty good, and of course, they overlap in time.

So let's just take a look.

Illinois at No. 7 Ohio State (11 am, FOX): Illinois looked pretty good roughing up a ranked FCS team last week, but that was at least partially motivated by its having lost on the road to Wake Forest the week before. That's really not a thing that should happen -- no Big Ten team whose name doesn't rhyme with "Burdue" or "Snutgers" should ever lose to the Demon Deacons, at least not in football -- but I don't actually know what it means for the quality of Bret Bielema's team. What I do know is that Ohio State lost to Texas on the road two weeks ago, and if you can't win on the road in [googles] ... Wake Forest? Really? -- what the heck are you going to do in Columbus? Ohio State 37, Illinois 13. 

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (2:30 pm, CBS/Paramount+): I admit I had hopes that both these teams would be ranked when they met, but I figured Iowa would underwhelm enough to stuck in the Others Receiving Votes purgatory. Not in my most lysergic dreams did I imagine, however, that Iowa would be ranked higher than Michigan.

It's Week 4. I have no idea if Iowa is correctly ranked. I am quite sure that Michigan will be the biggest test the Hawks have faced this far -- and that Iowa will be the biggest test Michigan has faced, because Oklahoma has not looked good at all.

Also Michigan lost to WMU, You know it, I know it, and the American people know it. Iowa 24, Michigan 20.

Wisconsin at No. 13 Penn State (4 pm, Peacock): Matt Campbell isn't in Ames any more so I can finally, begrudgingly, admit that yeah, he's a decent coach. I am lowkey looking to this season as a show that there's just something about Ames that holds football coaches back. I think the Nits will put up gaudy numbers here, but I'm not ready to call Soup the next Cignetti, particularly since the first Cignetti is still here and doesn't seem to have lost a step. Of course, even Nebraska thinks Indiana's nonconference schedule was soft. Nits, by a lot. Penn State 44, Wisconsin 17.

Nebraska at Michigan State (4 pm, BTN): The "are the Huskers finally back?" stories are running again, while Pat Fitzgerald and Michigan State are having a round of  "who rescued who?" I commend the voters for taking a wait-and-see attitude towards ranking the Huskers, but a win here would probably get them a ranking in the twenties. And I think they'll win. Nebraska 30, Michigan State 23.

Minnesota at Washington (10 pm, FOX): Nothing good comes from these long road trips -- not in either direction; see last week's USC-Rutgers game that Lincoln Riley almost gacked away -- and nothing ever will. I'm not sure Washington is all that great, but I feel a little more confident that Minnesota is at best a 7-5 team. Washington 40, Minnesota 20.

The Drop, Week 3: Sole Survivor

There were so many deliriously goofy things that happened in college football last weekend, but it's already Wednesday as I write this and I'm quite sure you're sick of all of them. So instead I'm going to take a quick rundown of what has happened amongst the five teams of the Sweepiverse at the close of the season's first quarter.

Four of our five teams have played a game against a Power 4 opponent, so nuts to you, Nebraska.

Of those four teams, here's how it has gone for them against those opponents:

• Illinois lost on the road to Wake Forest. I somehow feel like this is not a good omen for its 2026 season. As chance would have it, I was in Champaign last weekend (for a meeting, not for the game) and talked to a couple Illinois fans who were convinced that they would beat SIU but that would be the last win of the Illini's season. I think that might a bit too much doom but I don't fault Illini fans for defaulting to a mindset of chronic impending disaster.
• Minnesota lost at home to Mississippi State. By the time the season ends that may not prove to be a bad loss, but we are here and it is now and it seems like it is one. If you need proof that These Times We Live In are bad, there is already speculation on where Bulldog QB Kamario Taylor will be playing next season, with Mississippi State not being seen as particularly likely.
• Wisconsin got frogstomped by Notre Dame, but that is what everyone expected to happen, so.
• Iowa beat Iowa State at home. There has been considerable angsting over the narrow 16-13 victory, particularly in the light of ISU being a near-consensus presason favorite to finish last in the Big XII. I think Kansas might have something to say about that, and I'm not yet ready to anoint Oklahoma State as being in the clear, because beating 2026 Oregon might turn out not to be that big of a deal.

In other words, twenty-five percent of the way through the season, Iowa is the only one of our five teams with a victory over a Power 4 opponent.

The Sweep, Week 2: The Regurgitated Frosting Theory

One of my laws of college football is this: Competition creates competitors. Teams that feast on cupcakes in early September will spend the rest of the season puking up frosting. I considered this rule ironclad and inviolable until the rise of Indiana, which treats challenging non-conference games the way most of us would react to finding a dead rat in our breakfast.

Hayden Fry's notorious theory about scheduling those non-conference games was "a tune-up, a toss-up, and Iowa State." For most of Hayden's tenure Iowa State was a second tune-up, but I digress. It's fair to say I stole my idea from him. A team that arrives at a challenging conference schedule without having been seriously tested at least once is significantly less likely to make it through the season unscathed.

Indiana has now provided at least one counter-example to my theory, but it's too soon to tell whether that is actual data or just an anecdote. For the teams in my purview, since they're unlikely to make the playoff, the cost of a non-conference loss is mostly pride and maybe a slide down the rankings, if they're even in them.

Why do I bring this up? No idea, but it's certainly not because of Nebraska's kitten-belly-soft non-conference schedule this season. Bill Snyder scheduled tougher opponents at K-State.

Anyway, the games. This looks like a good week to get any of that pesky yard work done because these games should be darn near unwatchable.

Akron at Minnesota (11 am, BTN): It's tempting to crack wise about Minnesota playing one of the many interchangeable Ohio MAC schools, but since the Gophers got pantsed by Mississippi State last weekend I'll let it slide. Akron got a lot of free publicity last week by allowing a fan to call the offensive plays on its opening drive, only for that drive to stall out when one of the Zips fumbled, which is the most Akron thing ever. The Zips should maybe just let AI call all the plays this week; it wouldn't affect the result. Minny 44, Akron 7.

Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin (11:30 am, Peacock): Here is another theoretically unforgiveable game that can be looked past after the goshawful season the Badgers had last year. After all, what is MAC football other than an escort service for Big Ten programs? Wisconsin 38, EMU 17.

Southern Illinois at Illinois (1 pm, Peacock): Speaking of clandestine transactions, here's another one, but at least SIU is pretty good. Not "beat the flagship of its own state" good since they did lose in their opening game to a school that just moved up to Division II, but still, pretty good. Illinois 48, SIU 20.

Northern Iowa at Iowa (3 pm, FS1): Iowa has played NIU and UNI. So why does it refuse to play INU, IUN, NUI, and UIN? What is Kirk Ferentz afraid of? Smash that 'like' button and hit 'subscribe' for more deceptive content! Iowa 33, UNI 10.

North Dakota at Nebraska (6:15 pm, BTN): The joke is potentially on the Huskers here since the [Googles] Fighting Hawks are ranked No. 6 in the FCS this week. I think they're hoping that everyone thinks they're playing North Dakota State, which the Huskers would never do. Of course, they played Ohio University in the season opener, not Ohio State (that game is coming) and for three quarters it was dangerously close to disaster. UND doesn't have the horses to run with Nebraska for four quarters, but it probably does for three. Again. Nebraska 42, UND 23.

Know Your Non-Conference Tomato Can: North Dakota

The University of North Dakota is located in, and pretty much is, the city of Grand Forks. Yeah, there's an air base there, but it's a considerable ways out of town. With an enrollment just over 15,000 students, UND doesn't have the football profile of its long-time rival NDSU, but it's an up and coming university. Its aviation and aerospace programs are noteworthy and, just like the University of Iowa, you can study law and medicine at UND, but you can't study agriculture. And, just like Minnesota, hockey is a bigger deal here than football is. Notable UND alumni include a zillion NHL players, basketball coach Phil Jackson, NFL "Remember That Guy?" hall-of-famer Jim Kleinsasser, and Gen X gadfly Chuck Klosterman.

Cupcake photo: https://www.instagram.com/p/CG-WXGipr26/

UND photo: By MatthewUND - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7590288