College football can be such a cruel and confusing sport.
A team can get better year over year in ways that anyone can see, and yet its record can stay the same or even get a little bit worse. You can dig deep into the stats looking for that one thing that might make the difference if you can capitalize on it but listen: it's never just one thing.
For instance, it would be tempting to look at this stat that Pete Fiutak of College Football News highlighted: Last season the Gophers were 5-0 when Drake Lindsey hit at least 65 percent of his passes. So the key is just letting him cook, right? Add some better receivers if you can, give him an extra half-second in the pocket, and that should lift the Gophers from 7 regular-season wins to like 9 or 10, right?
Then you also look at the Gophers' road vs. home record: 7-0 at home, 0-5 on the road. Two completely different teams, it would seem. Lay the first stat over the second and you realize Lindsey couldn't hit the magic 65 percent in any of Minnesota's road games. Would better receivers and another year help? Certainly! But no way is that the only thing keeping the Gophers from getting back to their ten-win, nationally-ranked heights they've reached under PJ Fleck.
Likewise, one reason improvement doesn't always show up in the record is because some of the teams you play change from year to year, and the ones you play every year (for Minnesota, that's Iowa and Wisconsin) also might get better or worse from one year to the next.
So if Minnesota is in a place of 7-5 homeostasis, that's not an indication that the Gophers are bad or that PJ Fleck is a bad coach. (I don't like the guy's persona, but he's a decent coach.) It's just an indication that lots of college football teams are running to stand still.
Why bring all that up? You'll see at the bottom of this preview.
The Big Question: Is ten wins an achievable goal for this or any Gopher team, or has the world turned, leaving the Gophers solidly in the C-Tier of the Big Ten?
My Guess at the answer: No matter how much the passing game continues to improve under PJ Fleck, the Gophers are not going to get back to those heights without improving their performance against ranked teams They are 4-6 in their last ten games against ranked opponents, and Fleck's all-time record against Top Ten foes is 2-10, with both victories coming in the 2019 season. So even if the schedule gods smile sweetly upon Ski-U-Mah -- and boy do they this season -- it's still an uphill fight.
Key Games:
- Mississippi State, Sept.. 12: I don't know that this game is all that important, really. I just think it's cool and surprising that an SEC team is playing a non-conference road game (a) at all, and (b) this far north.
- Michigan, Oct. 3: This will be the game that lets you know if the Gophers have what it takes to get over the hump. Mind you, I think the answer is "no," but regardless, this is the game that will tell us all.
AI-Generated Joke about the Gophers:
Why did the Minnesota Golden Gophers football team start taking GPS devices into the huddle?
To figure out how they managed to lose Paul Bunyan’s Axe in their own back yard!
As bad as the Iowa joke was, that's how good this one is. It makes sense, it's factually correct, and it hits where it counts. I honestly don't know if I could improve it. 9/10.
My Prediction: That undefeated at home/winless on the road split won't hold true this year. The Gophers will be great fun to watch (for a change) but will wind up 7-5.
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