In the twenty-sixth year of Kirk Ferentz, the Iowa Hawkeyes finished the regular season 8-4, then lost in the Music City Bowl. The offense continued to be like airline food for college football comedians, while the defense and special teams carried the day. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
(For any Iowa State fans reading, that means the outcome was predictable, like Matt Campbell making the Cyclones look like 2004 Texas until they have to play a tough opponent.)
After the usual offseason, will anything ever be different in Iowa City? That sounds specifically like ...
The Big Question: Now that Mark Gronowski has arrived from a great career at South Dakota State, will this be the year that we learn Iowa really was just a quarterback away from the playoffs? Or, well ...
needle scratch
No, the Other Big Question: How much longer is Kirk Ferentz going to do this?
My Guess at the Answer: Ferentz is under contract through the end of the 2026 season, but that is academic. If he wants an extension, he'll get one. Probably not a long one. I'd say sooner or later his age will start being used against him on the recruiting trail, but that day came around a decade ago.
I don't have any inside knowledge, but if you want something to focus on, focus on the number 8. That is the minimum number of wins Iowa must have this season to push Ferentz's all-time winning ratio* over .600, which is the minimum required for a coach to become eligible for the College Football Hall of Fame. Based on his Iowa record alone he would already be eligible, but his three seasons as the head coach at Maine -- where he went 12-21 -- drag him down just below the eligibility threshold. His career ratio stands at .598 after last season. If you think eight wins sounds far-fetched for Iowa in 2025, the last time Iowa didn't win eight games in a non-COVID season was 2014.
Does that really matter to him? I don't know. But when he's this close to securing an honor he surely deserves, why stop now?
UPDATE: The College Football Hall of Fame is lowering the required win ratio to .595 because the old number would have excluded the late Mike Leach, who absolutely deserves induction. Under the new number, which takes effect in 2027, Kirk Ferentz is already eligible, so all he has to do is not drop below .595 before he retires. If he ever retires, that is.
As for Gronowski, I do expect Iowa's offense to look a lot better this season. I'm just not sure it ever really matters who is playing quarterback for Kirk Ferentz.
Key Games:
- at Iowa State, Sept. 6: Obviously this is always a big game for both schools, but the Hawkeyes can't afford to lose this one if they intend to show that things are different now.
- at USC, Nov. 15: There are big games galore sprinkled throughout Iowa's schedule, but this one looms a little larger in my mind as winning a game in Los Angeles -- even if it isn't a Rose Bowl -- is big for the Hawkeyes.
My prediction: What else? 8-4. Just don't ask me what happens after that.
*: I know, everybody calls it "winning percentage." The number is not expressed as a percentage so I don't call it that. A .598 "winning percentage" would mean that Kirk would have won just two games out of the 366 he has coached. I do fine at parties; why do you ask?
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