The Sweep, Week 1: Consume Football, You Prole

Girl with an iPad, an Allegory of Consumerism, after Paulus Moreelse. Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com. Licensed from Flickr via CreativeCommons.

Well, I had the margin and general score range of Farmageddon right, but I picked the wrong winner. This is all standard operating procedure for yours truly in Week 0, which I maintain should not exist. Now comes Labor Day weekend and a full schedule of games. Are there good games in the Big Ten this weekend? Absolutely! Are we going to be looking at any of them? Absolutely not! It's a close race between this week and Week 3 for the flattest spot on the calendar. But ... it's football, and football is better than not-football. Right? Right??!?

(I had to read Jean Baudrillard's book Simulacra and Simulation as an undergrad. It argued that, due to the explosion of media, genuine experiences have been replaced by near-exact copies. He predicted a future in which nothing was genuine and every bit of media we consumed would simply be a commentary on/regurgitation of media we had already consumed. He wrote this in 1981. Now go open any social media platform and weep.)

Right. The games.

BUFFALO @ MINNESOTA: 7 pm Thursday, FS1

Even though the Bulls should be easy skanking for Minnesota, I've never been terribly impressed with how the Gophers have looked in their season openers. Their record is good but most of the wins have been less than gorgeous. The Gilded Rodents might look okay in this one, but I remain deeply skeptical of their offense until it actually shows me something against an opponent with a pulse. And I bet Lance Leipold could have won this game if he were still there. Fleck 27, Dreck 14.

Know Your Non-Conference Tomato Can: Buffalo

University at Buffalo, Sunset. James G. Milles. Licensed from Flickr via CreativeCommons.

Founded as a medical school in 1847 by a team of western New York boosters that included future US  president Millard Fillmore, the University at Buffalo, State University of New York (its official name) has grown to become the largest of SUNY's mostly invisible and obscure campuses. Buffalo enrolls over 32,000 students, making it the largest school in the Mid-American Conference by a considerable margin. The school has three campuses, though the North Campus in the Buffalo suburb of Amherst is by far the largest. Buffalo is one of those schools that has a low profile but has had a number of notable people pass through its halls. Notable UB graduates/attendees include Wolf Blitzer, Jeannine Pirro, Intel CEO Bob Swan and, of course, Ronnie James Dio (who never graduated). However, the list also includes Harvey Weinstein, so. Wikipedia wants to be sure you don't confuse Buffalo with Buffalo State, which I didn't even know was a thing.

NEBRASKA v. CINCINNATI: 8 pm Thursday, Eternally Showing Pat McAfee Network

Among the five teams in The Sweep's bailiwick, this is your best shot at seeing a good game in the otherwise anodyne Week 1 lineup. Even so, that's a bit of a stretch, as Scott Satterfield has been struggling to get the Cincinnati Bearcats back to respectability. Then again, the difference in records between these two teams last season was one win, though that difference was between 5-7 and 6-6, meaning Nebraska got to go to a bowl game and Cincinnati didn't. I'm not yet sold on Nebraska's return to greatness, but the Huskers should win this one. I think it will be a good game, too. Runza 31, Skyline 24.

FAKE MIAMI @ WISCONSIN: 8 pm Thursday, BTN

For those of you new to my writing, "Fake Miami" is how I refer to Miami of Ohio, because when college football fans hear the name "Miami," this is not the school they are thinking of. This game and next week's Who Cares Special against Middle Tennessee State are the only two games on Wisconsin's schedule that I feel confident it will win, so enjoy this one, Badger fans. Butterburger 41, Roethlisberger 17.

WESTERN ILLINOIS @ No. 12 ILLINOIS: 6:30 pm Friday, Peacock

The Western Illinois Leathernecks have had two winning seasons in the past fifteen years. So be glad this game is only on streaming; you won't accidentally be exposed to it. Illinois 56, Third Most Obscure Directional Illinois School 10.

ALBANY @ IOWA: 5 pm Saturday, FS1

Hayden Fry famously said his noncoference scheduling goal was "a tuneup, a tossup, and Iowa State." Kirk Ferentz has swapped the tossup for a second tuneup, but it's hard to blame him for doing that. Especially now when he needs to see what his shiny new transfer-portal quarterback(s) can do. The Albany Great Danes have been a pretty good FCS team, though last season they fell to 4-8. Now they start the season under an interim head coach, against a team that kinda sorta needs to make an offensive statement. Everybody knows what an Iowa season opener is like. Slow start, signs of life towards halftime, shut off the engines after you're up two scores. Expect the same here. Bird Parts 30, Big Clumsy Dogs 13.

The Sweep *Hates* Week Zero

Photo by Flickr user throwra_uk. Licensed through Creative Commons.

Ah, the joys of Week Zero, that miraculous nonweek of the schedule that increasingly holds big-name teams clashing outside the country. Because nothing says "welcome back, America's favorite sport" like playing the first meaningful game overseas. There are a few minor stateside games involving schools that you weren't even sure played college football, but that's not what you're here for (is it? This is a new site, so I dunno), so let's get on with it.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State (11 am Central, Saturday, Eternally Showing Pat McAfee Network): This, specifically, is why I hate Week Zero, particularly when it comes wrapped in a gimmick like "let's play the game in Dublin." I mean, I love the thought of ISU fans being completely cut off from Natty Light, thus being forced to drink actual beer rather than a lightly-stained fluid that answers the question "is it possible for water to somehow lose its flavor?" That's just low-hanging comedy, though. There is an actual reason to hate this game, and this is it:

These two teams figure to be pretty good this season. K-State under Chris Klieman has turned into a consistent nine-win team. Meanwhile Matt Campbell has become something of the anti-Ferentz: he always has good quarterbacking but can never quite get over the hump. 

Both these teams have good reason to believe they can win this game. One of these teams is going to lose, and they're likely to spend the rest of the season believing that the universe did them dirty. At the end of the season it could even be the difference between a New Year's Day bowl ("Alexa, does anybody actually care about the New Year's bowls any more?" "Well, apparently you do.") and a bowl game in the early post-Christmas period that is named after a small regional restaurant chain, against a team that is on its third conference in eight years. (You may deduce from this that I don't believe either of these teams will make the playoff. That would be correct.)

The other nightmare scenario is that the winner gets massively overhyped (because, after all, these are two teams that figure to be pretty good this season) only for the loser to wind up going 6-6, making all the petals fall of this precious August flower of a publicity stunt conference game.

It will be a fun experience for the fans regardless. I grew up in Iowa and even though I'm a Hawkeye fan I have plenty of good friends who are Cyclone fans. Some are even going to the game. I just can't help but think that this game would have worked just as well at Arrowhead.

Are you actually going to talk about the game? -Ed.

Sorry, forgot I have a new editor. Everyone is calling this one close and I think that's accurate. In the end I think Iowa State's explosive-potential offense will not be enough to counteract K-State's ability to dominate on both lines, so the Wildcats will win. Wheat Farmers 26, Pig Farmers 23.

2025 Preview: Wisconsin

After putting up a good first season as Wisconsin's coach, Luke Fickell took a step back in 2024 as the Badgers finished 5-7 and did not get a bowl bid. This led to a fair amount of schematic remodeling. Now it is time to see if all the hard work behind the scenes will bear fruit.

The Big Question: Which schedule maker did the Badgers honk off? After two nonconference hanging curveballs (Fake Miami and Middle Tennessee), Wisconsin plays Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then gets Maryland (September Maryland, keep in mind), Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, and Oregon. Those last four games are on successive Saturdays, so there is no breathing room and no margin for error.

My Guess at the Answer: Obviously the terrifying schedule wasn't deliberate, though I wouldn't blame any Badger fans who thought the league must have it in for them. Nah, it's just reality in the New and Improved Big Ten. Sometimes the schedule comes wrapped in marshmallow fluff (*cough* Nebraska) and sometimes it comes wrapped in razor wire. These things even out in the long run, but any individual season is not "the long run." Also the Alabama game is Wisconsin's own fault.

Key Games:

• Maryland, Sept. 20: Coming the weekend after an Alabama game the Badgers are bound to lose, and two weeks before a trip to Ann Arbor to face some Wolverines who haven't been this mad since the first X-Men movie, this has the potential to be both a trap game and a hangover game.
• Washington, Nov. 8: It's pretty sad when you look at a schedule and figure that Washington might be one of the softest conference opponents. The Badgers are going to have to show up strong against the Huskies.

My Prediction: Wisconsin could well be a better team than it was last season, but it absolutely will not show up in the record. In fact, I'm guessing the Badgers step back to 4-8. I think Fickell survives, though. Barry Alvarez himself couldn't do much better than 6-6 against this schedule.

2025 Preview: Nebraska

After spending an uncomfortable time wandering in the wilderness following Bo Pelini's firing, Nebraska finally returned to the postseason last year -- and won. I don't know about you but I sense that Nebraska fans might now realize how hard it is to win consistently in college football and how lucky they were to get Bob Devaney and Tom Osbourne back-to-back. (They may never realize that firing Frank Solich without having the next coach in-pocket already was a horrible mistake, but that's okay. We all know it.)

The Big Question: You will hear ad nauseam that Matt Rhule's great breakthrough in each of his previous college stops came in his third season at each school with double-digit wins. Well, this is his third season at Nebraska, so ... playoffs for the Huskers? Or will they get yet another lesson in how hard it is to win consistently?

My Guess at the Answer: The Huskers lost a disturbing amount of upperclassmen to the transfer portal, but with a schedule that avoids Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington, eight wins feels like the floor for this team.

Key Games: 

• vs. Michigan, Sept. 20: I simply don't see a path to ten wins for the Huskers if they drop this game at home. And they've lost a lot of games at home that they shouldn't have. Sherrone Moore won't coach in this game, though.
• at UCLA, November 8: If the Bruins are even marginally better than they were last season, this road trip could be deadly to Nebraska's (admittedly slim) playoff hopes. It's the week after hosting USC and two weeks before a completely unwinnable trip to Penn State.

My Prediction: The Huskers fail to win ten or eleven games but put up a respectable 9-3, then try to forget that they fired Pelini and Solich for doing just that.

2025 Preview: Minnesota

It is well known by anyone who has ever read my writings on college football that I am not a fan of Philip John Fleck Jr. I'm sure he's a decent person who recycles and keeps his lawn mowed. I wouldn't mind having him as a neighbor if only because that would mean that my salary would have increased at least sevenfold. I pass no judgement on him as a person, but as a coach, he leaves me cold. Now in his ninth season at Minnesota, if he were going to do anything incredible, he would have done it by now. I'm not going to call him "all hat, no cattle" but (a) speaking as a fellow bald guy, he ought to wear a hat when he's out in the sun, and (b) he has occasionally shown some bovinity on the field -- and honestly, I mean that in a good way. I just think the guy should run his mouth a little less, that's all.

Last year was an 8-5 season for the Gophers, and wow, who (other than everyone) saw that coming?

The Big Question: Can Minnesota put together an offense with enough grunt to at least keep it in games against teams with superior depth, or will the defense have to carry the team again in 2025? Given the absolute lack of experience at quarterback -- the Gophers have one player who has attempted a pass in a college game -- that is a huge question indeed.

My Guess at the Answer: LOL, nope. No, the Gophers cannot hope to have anything more than a pedestrian offense in 2025. Even that might be too much to expect.

Key Games:

• at California, Sept. 13: I give mad props to Minnesota for scheduling a West Coast road trip despite being in the Big Ten (and yes, I'm aware this game was probably scheduled before the annexation of the good parts of the Pac-12). Taking on the moribund California Golden Bears will let the team get its travel legs without suffering a humiliating, confidence-destroying loss on the third weekend of the season.
• at Iowa, October 25: The Gophers have to win this game, because they regard themselves as Iowa's equal even though the record on the field indicates this is wishful thinking on their part.

My Prediction: Minnesota gets Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State and Wisconsin as its home conference opponents and somehow manages to lose to two of them, as well as getting stomped by Ohio State and Oregon on the road, en route to another 7-5 regular season. P.J. Fleck's status as a coach too good to fire but not good enough to keep becomes even further cemented.

2025 Preview: Iowa

In the twenty-sixth year of Kirk Ferentz, the Iowa Hawkeyes finished the regular season 8-4, then lost in the Music City Bowl. The offense continued to be like airline food for college football comedians, while the defense and special teams carried the day. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

(For any Iowa State fans reading, that means the outcome was predictable, like Matt Campbell making the Cyclones look like 2004 Texas until they have to play a tough opponent.)

After the usual offseason, will anything ever be different in Iowa City? That sounds specifically like ...

The Big Question: Now that Mark Gronowski has arrived from a great career at South Dakota State, will this be the year that we learn Iowa really was just a quarterback away from the playoffs? Or, well ...

needle scratch

No, the Other Big Question: How much longer is Kirk Ferentz going to do this?

My Guess at the Answer: Ferentz is under contract through the end of the 2026 season, but that is academic. If he wants an extension, he'll get one. Probably not a long one. I'd say sooner or later his age will start being used against him on the recruiting trail, but that day came around a decade ago.

I don't have any inside knowledge, but if you want something to focus on, focus on the number 8. That is the minimum number of wins Iowa must have this season to push Ferentz's all-time winning ratio* over .600, which is the minimum required for a coach to become eligible for the College Football Hall of Fame. Based on his Iowa record alone he would already be eligible, but his three seasons as the head coach at Maine -- where he went 12-21 -- drag him down just below the eligibility threshold. His career ratio stands at .598 after last season. If you think eight wins sounds far-fetched for Iowa in 2025, the last time Iowa didn't win eight games in a non-COVID season was 2014.

Does that really matter to him? I don't know. But when he's this close to securing an honor he surely deserves, why stop now?

UPDATE: The College Football Hall of Fame is lowering the required win ratio to .595 because the old number would have excluded the late Mike Leach, who absolutely deserves induction. Under the new number, which takes effect in 2027, Kirk Ferentz is already eligible, so all he has to do is not drop below .595 before he retires. If he ever retires, that is.

As for Gronowski, I do expect Iowa's offense to look a lot better this season. I'm just not sure it ever really matters who is playing quarterback for Kirk Ferentz.

Key Games:

• at Iowa State, Sept. 6: Obviously this is always a big game for both schools, but the Hawkeyes can't afford to lose this one if they intend to show that things are different now.
• at USC, Nov. 15: There are big games galore sprinkled throughout Iowa's schedule, but this one looms a little larger in my mind as winning a game in Los Angeles -- even if it isn't a Rose Bowl -- is big for the Hawkeyes.

My prediction: What else? 8-4. Just don't ask me what happens after that. 

*: I know, everybody calls it "winning percentage." The number is not expressed as a percentage so I don't call it that. A .598 "winning percentage" would mean that Kirk would have won just two games out of the 366 he has coached. I do fine at parties; why do you ask?

2025 Preview: Illinois

Illinois' surprise 10-win 2024 season culminated with Bret Bielema eating Shane Beamer's lunch in the Citrus Bowl as the Illini beat South Carolina 21-17. Bielema has had little trouble beating SEC teams as a Big Ten coach, which makes it all the more amazing that his tenure at Arkansas was so bad. Is another 10-win season on the table for 2025? Well, that's ...

The Big Question: Was 2024 a lucky fluke/favorable schedule or was it a sign that Bielema has raised Illlinois' ceiling? In the new-look Big Ten, while the overall level of competition has increased, it ironically becomes easier to avoid the league's premier teams, as it is highly unlikely any team will have to face all of them in a single season without actually being one of them.

My Guess at the Answer: 2024 got a huge assist from the schedule and from Michigan being down a bit last year. The Illini predictably lost at Penn State and got their teeth knocked down their throats by Oregon. Skipping the red-hot Indiana Hoosiers last season also helped. So the Illini's fortunes in 2025 are going to depend on how the schedule shakes out this season. I remain noncommittal on whether Bielema can actually get Illinois to his old Wisconsin level. Coaching the Illini has always been like invading Russia in the winter.

Key Games:

• at Indiana, Sept. 20: If Indiana is still good in Curt Cignetti's second season, this game will be an absolute dogfight. An Illini victory here would be a strong early sign that 10 wins are on the table.
• at Washington, Oct. 25: I don't give Illinois much chance against Ohio State on October 11, even if the game is in Champaign. Or Urbana. Or wherever Memorial Stadium is. I live in Illinois, you'd think I would know that. So this West Coast road test is going to be critical. Get past this game and November looks no worse than 3-1.

My Prediction: The Illini lose to Ohio State and Washington and drop one other game along the way to finish at 9-3.