The Drop, Week 14: First Year Debriefing

It's been a season now since I pared Pickin' On The Big Ten down to just five teams. I don't know how anyone else feels about it but for me, it made writing fun again. Life is simply too short to have to try to analyze and say something intelligent about eighteen teams for 14 straight weekends.

Now as we prepare for the postseason I'd like to take a look back at the things I got right and the things I got wrong along the way. Let's start by looking at my preseason picks for each team's final record and how that compares to what really happened

• Illinois: I prediced 9-3; it finished 8-4.
• Iowa: I predicted 8-4; it finished 8-4.
• Minnesota: I predicted 7-5; it finished 7-5.
• Nebraska: I predicted 9-3; it finished 7-5.
• Wisconsin: I predicted 4-8; it finished 4-8.

So that's three direct hits, one prediction of one too many wins, and one of two too many wins. No team outperformed my expectations from back in August. I'll take that.

I'm also proud of having predicted that, despite finishing 4-8, Luke Fickell would return for 2026. I think that has as much to do with what a bad hiring environment it wound up being as it does with any patience and/or love being shown to Fick.

And I offer this from Week 0, when Iowa State and Kansas State squared off in Dublin:

"The other nightmare scenario is that the winner gets massively overhyped (because, after all, these are two teams that figure to be pretty good this season) only for the loser to wind up going 6-6, making all the petals fall of this precious August flower of a publicity stunt conference game."

While I was wrong about who would win -- I picked K-State -- the Wildcats lost the game, finished the season 6-6, and neither team is ranked.

That said, while I am proud of my macro-scale predictions, some of my game calls were a little ... off. Like how I predicted the Indiana-Illinois final score would be IU 34, Illinois 31, and it wound up IU 63, Illinois 10. I followed that up one week later guessing the Hoosiers would paste the Hawkeyes 48-10. The final in that game wound up Indiana 20, Iowa 15. Indiana is enigmatic, or the Hawkeyes are the best 8-4 football team in the country.

And lastly I slipped this into my Minnesota preview about the California game: 

"Taking on the moribund California Golden Bears will let the team get its travel legs without suffering a humiliating, confidence-destroying loss on the third weekend of the season."

This was a blatant attempt to put the whammy on the Gophers so that they would lose to the Golden Bears, and it worked. The Gophers were undefeated in Huntington Bank Stadium this season, and winless everywhere else.

Photo credit: “The amazing Zoltar” by Nan Fry, CC BY 2.0

The Sweep, Week 14: Every New Beginning ...

And so this is it, the end of the road for the 2025 regular season, on a weekend when all of Sweep Country is stuffed to the gills and most of us (but nor me, thankfully) are under some sort of winter weather advisory. It has been a disappointing season for literally every team in our purview; let us all go off to our mid-tier bowl games and turn our thoughts to basketball. But not before we pick the big rivalry games, of course!

Northwestern at Illinois (6:30 pm, FOX): Northwestern wound up performing significantly better than I thought it would this season; it's bowl-eligible and thus bowl-going. Illinois probably should have expected a slight return to earth after its great season last year, simply because the schedule was a lot tougher this year. I've not seen Northwestern play but I have seen the Illini; they are a solid but unexceptional team with a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. This game will probably be played in a cold, miserable rain, so the team that makes the last mistake will probably lose. I think I like Illinois here, but I wouldn't be shocked if Northwestern took it. Illinois 24, Northwestern 20.

Wisconsin at Minnesota (2:30 pm, FS1): Gonna guess Minnesota would have preferred playing this game back in October when Wisconsin was still The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight. This game is literally meaningless as Minnesota has already won 6 while Wisconsin has already lost 7. (This would be a dangerous observation to make if anyone young actually read this column.) I think Luke Fickell has more to play for here, with a need to show that the bad stretch this season doesn't define him as a coach. Like I said before the year started, I don't think Barry Alvarez himself could have done much better than 6-6 against the Badgers' 2025 schedule. And Minnesota still can't really play offense. Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 17.

Iowa at Nebraska (11 am Friday, CBS/Paramount+): I'm not sure how many people thought both teams would come into this game with identical records. Husker faithful were confident that This Is Our Year, but the 'Skers couldn't quite break the rock. Iowa fans varied between "this team could make the playoff" and "this is a 4-8 football team" well into September, and neither faction was right. I don't love how dramatic the Michigan State game was for the Hawks, but after losing four close games, it was nice to win one, and to slay the dragon of "Kirk Ferentz teams can't come back in the fourth quarter." This may sound heretical to a lot of people, but I think Kirk is a better coach than Matt Rhule, and I think Iowa wins this game. Then they need to beat it on home before the snow flies. Iowa 17, Nebraska 16.

I am not going to pick any extra games this week, it's a holiday weekend and I just don't want to.

Photo credit: “DC Snowstorm Feb” by Al Jazeera English, CC BY-SA 2.0

The Sweep, Week 13: As The Bird-Flavored Popsicle Thaws

Don't mind me. I just learned that my family, which contains two vegetarians out of five total people, is doing a Sidesgiving. There will be no turkey. Technically there will be no main dish of any kind. And thus no leftover turkey sandwiches.

I am not okay with this, but a turkey split amongst three people is a disaster. I am at least hoping there will be stuffing, even if it's made with vegetable broth.

Then again, looking at this week's slate of games amongst our five teams, there may be enough turkeys for everyone.

Michigan State at Iowa (2:30 pm, FS1): This is the get-back game Iowa needs after failing to hold on last week against USC in the southern California rain that they say never falls. Michigan State has not looked good at any point this season, and I don't think this is where Sparty will start to figure it out. The Iowa system should swallow up the Spartans. Iowa 31, Michigan State 17.

Minnesota at Northwestern (11 am, BTN): After having spent last season looking moribund, and still stuck in the quaint but inadequate My First Stadium by Fisher-Price, Northwestern has ... actually looked decent over the past month? So I'm going to take the Wildcats here as P.J. Fleck once again cements his status as "not quite bad enough to fire." Especially not this season, but maybe Minnesota will luck out and he'll bumble his way into an ACC job or something. Northwestern 24, Minnesota 21.

Nebraska at Penn State (6:30 pm, NBC/Peacock): Well, here's a dilly of a pickle. Back in August I had this as an almost-certain loss for the Huskers, because I thought Penn State was not going to drop off from where it ended last season. Welp. I'm not sure I can say Nebraska is sure to lose this game any more -- but I am quite convinced it can. I just can't quite pull the trigger on that, though, but my confidence in this pick is extremely low. Nebraska 33, Penn State 27.

No. 21 Illinois at Wisconsin (6:30 pm, BTN): The Wisconsin team that beat Washington back on November 8 can certainly beat Illinois.

The Wisconsin team that played in the other nine games this season probably can't. Illinois 20, Wisconsin 13.

BONUS GAME: Kansas at Iowa State (11 am, FS1): I really thought Lance Leipold was going to get over the hump this year in the Big 12 but it's turned out another thoroughly mid year for the Jayhawks. Iowa State is in its all-too-familiar position of almost, but not quite, being a top team in the conference. I think there's something about the state of Iowa that just condemns its football teams to also-ran status. But that means those teams win the games they ought to win, and Iowa State ought to be beat the Jayhawks. Iowa State 27, Kansas 14.

Photo credit: “pumpkins in the rain” by liz west, CC BY 2.0

The Sweep, Week 12: With The End In Sight

College football is such a cruel sport for the spectators. It's the shortest season with only one game per week for your favorite team. I'm not suggesting they should play more frequently, or that the season should be longer. I'm just pointing out that loving college football is like being deeply committed to always owning a hamster: you'd better get used to losing something you had just learned to love.

There are no more than three games left for each of the teams under The Sweep's purview. This includes the season-ending rivalry weekend that, for our teams, will mostly be an anticlimax. And then ... well, for four of them, there will be a bowl game, but Wisconsin will almost certainly be spending the holidays in Madison. (Does a Wisconsin team that can only play the spoiler scare you? Particularly since Luke Fickell already knows he's coming back next year and thus has nothing to lose? It should.) Iowa has a slim, theoretical shot at the playoffs, but only if it wins out and there is unbelievable carnage amongst the teams currently ahead of it in the rankings. In other words, enjoy Tampa. Again. Maybe you should have bought that timeshare.

Maryland at Illinois (2:30 pm, FS1): This is a sneakily good game. Maryland has perfected the art of the October fade but retains some of its Septemberness well into November. Illinois is a very good football team that never quite manages to get a handle on its tendency to shoot itself in the foot. The weather in Champaign will also have the air of September about it on Saturday, which just raises a little more doubt about which Terrapins will show up. Regardless, I expect Illinois to win this game fairly easily. Illinois 34, Maryland 20.

No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (2:30 pm, BTN): SoCal has become a place of epically bad juju for the Hawkeyes, at least in games of significance. I can point to some pretty good Holiday Bowls and the incredible takedown of Texas in the 1984 Freedom Bowl, but when you're digging back forty years for counterexamples, you've lost the point. There's just something about Los Angeles that sucks all the know-how and all of the will to win out of the Hawks. I'd love to pick otherwise in this game, but I'm an evidence guy, and the evidence suggests another disappointment. USC 30, Iowa 13.

Wisconsin at No. 2 Indiana (11 am, BTN): Wisconsin still has a shot at bowl eligibility. All it has to do is win out, and hahahahaha blah blah something something she'd be your uncle. Indiana 56, Wisconsin 7.

Minnesota at No. 8 Oregon (Friday, 8 pm, Fox): On the other hand, it's hilarious when stuff like this happens to P.J. Fleck, the Dave Doeren of the Big Ten. Oregon 48, Minnesota 17.

Bonus Coverage: North Dakota at Murray State: Why this game? Because Murray State is the most woebegone FCS program this side of Indiana State. It's really a shame since they have a fairly awesome stadium and a very nice campus overall. Murray itself is a quaint little Southern college town, too. I'm not saying "go spend a vacation there," but there are worse places I can imagine spending a weekend in mid-November, like Grand Forks, North Dakota (where I have lived). North Dakota 42, Murray State 10.

Photo credit: “Roborovski Hamster” by cdrussorusso, CC BY 2.0

The Drop, Week 11: I Should Have This On Auto-Text

I wind up saying this at least once every football season: Iowa is consistently an eight- or nine-win football team. Sometimes it does a little better and wins ten or eleven games. Once in a while it does a little worse. Losing seasons are noteworthy because they are so rare. But, in general, if you guess that Iowa will win eight or nine games, you'll be right a lot more than you'll be wrong.

Stating this generally makes a certain breed of fan go a bit nuts, like somehow it's just my opinion, and my stating it becomes the concrete block tied to the ankle of the season, the one that sinks it until it sleeps with the fishes. But it's not an opinion. It's a fact based on forty-plus years of easily observable and verifiable evidence. You can no more credibly oppose my claim that Iowa is an eight- or nine-win football team than you can credibly argue the sun rises in the north.

I mention this because, of course, Iowa lost to Oregon on Saturday. It was a heartbreaking last-minute loss that was only made possible by an early-game safety for the Ducks. Otherwise the Hawks had 'em, just like they had Indiana on the ropes. If you think I wasn't disappointed by the loss, rest assured I was -- even though I had the Oregon game as a near-certain loss for the Hawks before the season started.

The expansion of the College Football Playoff, and the relentless hype of same in the sports media, has made many fans feel that any season which doesn't end in a playoff berth is a failure. This is just a short step away from what fans actually feel, which is that any season that doesn't end with a national title is a failure. It is frustrating to be on the cusp of maybe, possibly touching the grass of that promised land only to have it snatched away by yet another close loss. I don't begrudge anybody their misery. But I cannot bring myself to be overly emotional about the Hawkeyes losing a game I always expected them to lose.

Photo: “Crumpled Frustration” by Aaron Jacobs, CC BY-SA 2.0

The Sweep, Week 10: Perfunctory Mailed-In Edition

It has been A Week so I apologize for the flimsy nature of this week's column. If you are dissatisfied, I'll give you your money back.

Rutgers at Illinois (11 am, NBC/Peacock): Hey, I'll actually be at this game in person! Look for me! I'll be the middle-aged white dude wearing blue and orange!

(is handed a note)

Well, one of them, anyway.

I predicted, before the season, that Illinois would take a step back from its excellent 2024 run due having had a soffffffft schedule last season. So far that has proven right. The team isn't any worse, it might even be a bit better, but it's not showing up in the record. Still the Illini have an estimable offense, they're fun to watch, and it's not like anybody else has looked good against Indiana.

(is handed another note)

Except for Iowa.

As for Rutgers, I wonder how many more seasons it will take for them to figure out that Greg Schiano isn't going to get them back to where he once had them. Illinois 34, Rutgers 23.

Michigan State at Minnesota (2:30 pm, BTN): Ah, the cruelties of November. Minnesota sits at 4-3 with its typical 6-6/7-5 season well within grasp. They will go bowling. Any team that needs to beat two out of Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin to make the postseason can be sure of that. Sparty, meanwhile, is 3-5, winless in conference play, has only one more loss until every game is a fight against elimination, and is almost certainly not going to go 3-1 against its remaining schedule (this game, Penn State, at Iowa, Maryland), so it might as well get the next two losses over with. Though it will be hilarious for Sparty and Penn State to both be fighting for their first conference win of the season on the second Saturday of November next week. Minnesota 27, Sparty 17.

No. 23 USC at Nebraska: You are right. This would have been a much better game twenty-five years ago. As it stands now, it's the close match it would have been back then, but it's a close match of Big Ten also-rans. It's conceivable that Nebraska wins this game then wins at UCLA and at Penn State to come into the Heartland Trophy game 9-2, but USC has been improving just enough over the season that I think it can win in Lincoln. USC 30, Nebraska 24.

Photo credit: “mailbox-mail-cluster.jpg” by r. nial bradshaw, CC BY 2.0

The Drop, Week 9: Seems Like A Skills Issue

We take note this week, because it is impossible not to, that Brian Kelly's tenure at LSU has come to an ignoble end. That in and of itself is not shocking; there's more than one reason Baton Rouge is referred to as "Death Valley," and it sure isn't because of a climate that is hot and dry.

Kelly was probably destined to fail there. I've long thought that success in the SEC requires a particular set of coaching skills that simply cannot be picked up anywhere else. Mind you, I don't know what those skills are. Otherwise I'd be packaging them into a $1,399 online seminar, and I would probably sell that seminar out. There are coaches who have failed in the SEC but gone on to succeed elsewhere, and there are coaches who have succeeded elsewhere but failed in the SEC. (But enough about Bret Bielema.) That's what leads me to believe that, while it might not be strictly necessary to cut one's teeth as an SEC assistant if one's ultimate goal is to head up an SEC program, it dang sure isn't going to hurt a coach any.

I trust I don't need to tell you how much prior SEC experience Brian Kelly had.

Still, I can't help but think there is one circumstance that might have gotten Kelly another year or two, at least. That's if Nick Saban were still coaching.

It might have seemed to outsiders like Saban's retirement led the other SEC coaches to breathe a sigh of relief, but I'll bet it was the other way around. So long as Saban was there, the pressure to win the conference was off, because you just weren't going to win it. But once he was gone? And once it was clear Kalen DeBoer wasn't just going to pick up where Saban left off? Well, how come we're not winning more games, Coach? You can beat Alabama now!

I mean, that's how it was in the Big Ten when the only preseason question was whether this was a Michigan year or an Ohio State year. There was no shame in finishing third to those teams. Then Hayden Fry's Hawkeyes won the league in 1981 and suddenly, the dog caught the car. Now what?

Photo: Wikimedia Commons